The IMF has recently released predictions for the economy. It predicts a 3% fall in global GDP in 2020 and a 6.5% fall in the UK: The IMF is pessimistic about global recovery, apparently the economic recovery is beginning now, which is puzzling. It is interesting that only a month ago, …
Read More »Boris Johnson must publicly reject the Previous Treasury Predictions
It will be shown below that the Treasury has been using incorrect “predictions” to influence the debate on Independence. If the Conservatives are truly now a pro-Brexit party they must publicly rebut the Treasury Reports. There have been two high profile sets of Treasury Predictions during the campaign for Independence …
Read More »No Deal Brexit (WTO, No Transition) will be fine
The Treasury forecasts for the effect of the Referendum on the UK economy are now known to have been wrong. There was no huge economic meltdown due to “uncertainty” in 2017, unemployment has stayed low and inflation is steady. In fact the UK economy has performed better than that of …
Read More »A plague of yellowhammers
If Remainers were bookmakers, they would have been out of business long ago. Their ability to predict future events ranks with prophets predicting the end of the world is nigh. Next time you see someone ranting in the street calling on you to repent your sins because the world is …
Read More »Movement of Goods after a No Deal Brexit
UK ports imported 248m tonnes of produce and exported 138m tonnes in 2017. (See UK Port Freight Statistics 2017). Click to enlarge. Dover was responsible for only 26m tonnes of the total 386m tonnes of international freight transported in 2017. Top 10 major ports + All other tonnage Dover moved 15.5m …
Read More »The economy, value of pound, trade in July 2019
The graphs below summarise the current state of the UK economy: The central, grey line is the Purchase Power Parity (PPP) of the pound – what the pound is really worth when buying things in the UK, this is the real value of the pound. The coloured lines show when …
Read More »Welsh Lamb Propaganda
There has been a great deal about the “terrible” effects of Brexit on the Welsh lamb industry. What is the truth? Only about 30-40% of Welsh sheep meat is exported: The Welsh sheep industry was worth c.£278m to the Welsh economy in 2018. Only about £70m of meat of all types is …
Read More »The No Deal predictions
Prior to considering any of the predictions for a No Deal Brexit it is worthwhile to get a sense of perspective about the role of the EU in the UK economy. In 2016 exports to the EU constituted only 12% of UK GDP. ( See Exports of Goods and Services to …
Read More »What Journalists should know about Brexit
If, as a journalist or news editor, you know about the facts below but have never reported them you should seriously consider your ethics. John Major, the man who threatened to see the Government in court if it prorogued Parliament did this himself in 1997 – see The Sleaze Report. Yes …
Read More »IMF and Treasury Predicted WTO Brexit will be Fine!
The IMF and Treasury produced reports in 2016 that closely analysed the UK and international economy. The results of these reports should be read by everyone who is opposed to a No Deal Brexit. The IMF Country Report 16 on the United Kindom has this graph on p31 showing the process of …
Read More »The Choice is now Brexit or Project Fear – just like in the Referendum
After they signed May’s Withdrawal Agreement the EU said there would be no more negotiations. They stood firm on this during two “deadlines” in March and May. There really are no more negotiations possible. This means the UK can either Leave with a No Deal/WTO Brexit or Revoke Article 50. …
Read More »The case against George Osborne, Philip Hammond, and the Treasury
This paper considers whether George Osborne, Philip Hammond and senior Treasury officials should be prosecuted for Misconduct in a Public Office. Prior to the EU Referendum the HM Treasury issued a document called: HM Treasury analysis: the immediate economic impact of leaving the EU. This document was widely used by campaigners …
Read More »If MPs overturn the referendum on 13th March…
The EU Referendum was a straight fight between being prepared to accept the risks of “Project Fear” so that the UK could be independent and not being prepared to accept the risks of “Project Fear” . The Leave vote in the Referendum was a vote to accept the risk of …
Read More »Companies continue to invest in the United Kingdom as Brexit approaches
Since the European Union Referendum in 2016, stories about companies fleeing the UK and abandoning their UK manufacturing operations have been commonplace in the media. These events are often reported in isolation, and stories about companies moving to the UK, setting up new operations or expanding existing ones have not …
Read More »Weep not for the Blairites
For the first time in ages, Brexit is not dominating the news. Rather, a possible change in political alliances is breaking with the departure of the 7 Blairite MPs from the Labour party under the banner of “The Independent Group”. It is certainly possible that more Blairite MPs, such as …
Read More »Why Brexit will be fine – deal or no deal
Since the Referendum we can already see that wages are rising in real terms: The Referendum has brought us the highest level of real earnings since November 2010. According to the BBC article Wage Rises Accelerate to the Fastest Pace since 2008: ‘Howard Archer, chief economic adviser to the EY Item …
Read More »“Crashing out” of the EU – how big a crash?
The Bank of England published this graph showing the effect of leaving the EU with no deal in its report: EU withdrawal scenarios and monetary and financial stability: The graph is designed to look as scary as possible. However, when we read the notes on page 53 we find this little …
Read More »Chancellor Philip Hammond isolated in predicting Brexit will be bad
We have been warned by the BBC that Philip Hammond thinks Brexit will be bad for the UK economy. What do other sources of economic “wisdom” predict? The IMF Predicts the UK will have some of the strongest growth in European big 5 after Brexit: The World Bank in its Global Economic Prospects Predicts the UK …
Read More »Bank of England gives Green Light to WTO Brexit
Coverage in the media of the fact that the Belfast Agreement does NOT specify open borders with frictionless trade in Ireland has been entirely suppressed (read the Belfast Agreement here if you don’t know this) and the news that the Bank of England has calculated that a WTO Brexit with a 21 …
Read More »How to scare a population – the continuation of “Project Fear”
During the 2016 referendum on whether the UK should leave the EU, the public faced an onslaught of dire predictions regarding what could happen if “leave” won the vote. A mere vote to leave was meant to immediately wipe 4% off GDP, bringing about a recession and an emergency budget, result in …
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