Sunday , July 14 2024

Remain Predictions for #Brexit did not come true

Remain economists predicted that a Leave vote in the referendum would produce an immediate meltdown of the UK economy.  The meltdown was the expected result of voting Leave and the “uncertainty” this might cause.  Consider the much publicised IMF predictions:

The IMF has now revised its predictions! Brexit will now be fine with GDP growth in the normal range for W.Europe:

The Bank of England has also predicted good growth. So, its official, all the Brexit gloom was indeed just scaremongering.

The key to the failure of the Remain economist’s forecasts is that they assumed that investment would fall drastically after the Referendum. This has not happened:

Investment in the UK has remained at near record highs since 2015.  Obviously if you were uncertain about whether to invest you would have begun that uncertainty immediately after the Referendum.

All of the economic data since the EU Referendum has been good.  Retail sales are up, confidence has rapidly recovered after a brief fall, exports are up and imports are down.  The fall in the pound has been excellent news, it was overvalued due to the flight of Euros from the unstable Eurozone and this has been corrected so that the pound is back to its real value:

The latest adjustment in the value of the pound after the referendum completes the move back to a realistic exchange rate that began in 2014. The Eurozone has become less financially unstable since 2014 and this has reduced the flight of Euros into Sterling.  Had there not been a speculative blip upwards in the value of sterling before the referendum the current fall back to the PPP (Purchase Power Parity) value of the pound would have been unexceptional, the pound would just have been continuing its fall due to the Balance of Payments crisis.

The fall in the pound has been independent of any poor economic data except the Balance of Payments Current Account deficit and there was a flurry of speculation around the date of the Referendum.

The Bank of England confirmed that the Balance of Payments would cause the pound to fall: “A persistent current account deficit could lead to a sudden adjustment in capital flows or depreciation of the exchange rate, with adverse consequences for UK financial stability.” Bank of England

The fall in the pound is not due to any poor economic performance after the Referendum – the UK economy has been performing very well since the Referendum.

The reason that the IMF, PwC, Treasury etc. used “uncertainty” immediately after the referendum as their main argument against Brexit was that all of the experts, Remain or Leave, predicted good growth after Brexit actually happens. Here are quotes from their analyses:

“The UK economy then experiences faster growth in the medium term at 2.6% on average in 2021-25, before settling at around 2.4% per annum in 2026-2030.” PWC: Implications of an EU Exit

“Growth rates in later years are higher than the baseline..” IMF Country Report for UK

All of the economic data since the EU Referendum has been good and even the Remain economists predicted it would be excellent after Brexit.

So, either Remain economists got the economics of Brexit totally wrong, or they were trying to scare the People into being obedient.

There is much talk of “Brexit Lies” but the Remain campaign said that the Referendum would create a fall of about 3-5% in GDP and so cost an annual £75 bn to £125 billion a year (total GDP = £2.5 trillion).

Not only have the Remain Broadcast Media failed to cover the shocking lies told by Remain economists, they are actively suppressing all data on the terrible trade and balance of payments deficits with the EU.

The worst “Experts” of all were the HM Treasury whose “dodgy dossier”, HM Treasury Analysis: The immediate impact of leaving the EU, should go down in history along with the Government’s Iraq War dossiers:

HM Treasury Model predictions vs ONS Data for Unemployment


This post was originally published by the author on his personal blog:

About John Sydenham

Dr John Sydenham has worked in International Pharmaceuticals and for one of the "big four" International Consultancies. He ran a successful company for 15 years and after selling the company devotes his time to travel, science, black labradors and freedom.

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One comment

  1. Ian Pye

    Excellent, John. Thank you. When I said the rise in the £:$ before the Referendum was purely speculators cashin in, I was poo pooed.
    As for the “experts”, Michael Gove put it very well when he said we had had enough of experts.