Friday , June 21 2024

After the referendum?

This post is mainly addressed to elected MPs of the Conservative persuasion.

Whatever the outcome of the EU Referendum, I really think that David Cameron is peddling pure fantasy if he thinks that things can go back to ‘normal’.

The party line is that after the vote, Conservatives will come together , sing a couple of verses of Kumbaya and return to governing the country.  That those people who have been peddling lies, half-truths and highly selective use of statistics will gather around the Cabinet room table, with their colleagues from the Brexit camp, and just ‘get along’.

Further that the 150+ Conservative MPs, who support Brexit will become quiescent and follow the Tory party whip.  That these MPs will ignore the distrust that Cameron and Osborne have sewn with their attempts to fix the outcome of the EU referendum.

As said above, I think this is pure fantasy and I think that David Cameron and George Osborne know this.

I posit that Cameron and Osborne are actually planning an exit strategy that has them, and ‘their’ Remain MPs joining with those Labour Remainers, that are disaffected with the ineffectual and frankly disastrous  Jeremy Corbyn leadership, and forming a new political organisation.

Some will say it is unlikely that Yvette Cooper and Andy Burnham would be prepared to break bread with Cameron and Osborne.  I am not one of them.  Consider, Labour has made lots of noise about ‘austerity’ and what they call swingeing cuts but they know the reality is that Osborne continues to spend and borrow like the ‘reddest’ of Labour Chancellors.  Austerity has been a stick to beat each other with but this has been a feebly deployed weapon by both sides.  Don’t believe me?  Then explain how the Tories have been ‘savagely cutting public expenditure’ for the last 6 years and yet the National Debt has more than doubled to £1.6 Trillion.

This all may sound far-fetched but the Tories have a small majority, 12 , I believe and if Cameron cannot govern with an ‘unruly’ bunch of Brexiteers, then maybe he and Osborne would consider it best to break things up.  Of course it would be dressed-up as them ‘not leaving the Conservative Party but the Conservative Party having left them’ but the result would be a split.

And frankly,  I can see this happening, whatever the outcome of the vote.

That is, if (hopefully, when) a vote for Brexit is achieved, they and the Remainers would seek to frustrate the negotiations surrounding the Brexit so as to, in some perverted way, bring about the fulfillment of some of their wild referendum campaign claims and to seek a new referendum, where the environment/argument would then be ‘we told you so’.

If, heaven forbid, there is a vote to ‘remain’ then Cameron can expect a leadership challenge and clearly Osborne’s chance of succeeding him have evaporated so, why wouldn’t they want to get ahead of the field and leave?  For the Labour ‘deserters’ they will point to the next-to-non-existent referendum campaigning  from Corbyn and his less than whole-hearted support for a clear Labour policy.  They might even call it a National Coalition Party and a coming together to ‘heal the wounds and deep divisions that the referendum has created’, etc..  With the huge amounts of money that the government spends on ‘Special Advisers’ (SPADs) you can expect these to come up with all sorts of rational-sounding reasons why it is the ‘extremist right wing’ of the Conservatives and other ‘swivel-eyed loonies’ that are at fault and so on.  These people will be called racists, ‘little Englanders’ etc..

So my advice to the Brexiteers is to get your retaliation in, first.  Disturb the ‘peace’ of the Conservative Party by initiating a vote of confidence  and a leadership challenge, now – don’t wait for the outcome of the referendum.  Distract Cameron and Osborne from their lie-peddling and give them a new focus – their own survival.  Throw them off-balance and change the battleground.

In my view, the future of the Conservative Party, and indeed, Conservative policies, is at stake and the time for a pre-emptive challenge is now.

From Osborne, we have repeatedly seen how when someone pushes back, he folds – look at his tax credit policy, as a prime example.  Same really applies to Cameron – child refugees, anyone?.  Use these weaknesses and, in the process, save Britain.  Cameron and Osborne have adopted the bully boy tactics favoured by the Eurocrats and anti-democrats in Brussels but like all bullies they only attack those who do not defend themselves.  Like all liars and half-truth peddlers, they change the subject when faced with facts or the demand for evidence of their claims.

If Remain wins, it will only be because Cameron has repeatedly lied and stacked the deck against Brexit and has gotten into bed with Socialists and terrorist sympathisers and has called in favours from around the world from members of the ‘Elite Club’ who see democracy as something to be overcome and cheated against, rather than complied with

Business as usual , after June 23rd?  I don’t think so.

This post was originally published by the author 2 June 2016.

About Tom O'Brien

Tom is an English Conservative Christian currently working as a Finance Manager in Erbil, Kurdistan, Iraq. When not in Iraq, his home is in Grantham, Lincolnshire, United Kingdom; also the hometown of Margaret Thatcher.

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