Saturday , May 25 2024

Labour’s mess calls for early Brexit

I feel quite conflicted about the omnishambles that is the British Labour Party.  Not sure if I like this, or not.

On the one hand, the mess in which they find themselves augurs well for the Conservative party.  It would seem that the Labourites are in danger of splitting between the Jeremy Corbyn and his allies in the ‘entryist’ Momentum movement, and the remainder of the party, including the overwhelming majority of the party in Parliament.

As said, a split or further internecine fighting distracts them from performing the role of Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition (though I suppose that Corbyn and the those MPs that do sit in the depleted Shadow Cabinet, do take the extra money that comes with the role).  This itself isn’t good – democracy needs an opposition that can actually oppose and challenge and we all lose out, when we don’t have one. So the ‘brothers’ fighting gives the Conservatives an easy ride to implement policies.  For me, and of course I believe the country, I think it is good that we can get Conservative policies implemented but would prefer that such policies are tested – in the parliamentary sense.

I suppose I can live with that risk, if I had to.  I sense that there is a kind of opposition within the Conservative Party, anyway and maybe they will do the job that Labour are too internally focused to do.

On the other hand, and this really worries me, what happens if new PM, Theresa May, drags her feet on Brexit?  Apart from angering ‘Leavers’ in parliament, this will surely harden opinion in the country, against any Remainers.

For all those that go on about a second referendum and such, the assumption I believe is that having seen the result, many people who voted Leave will suddenly change and vote Remain.  I know it is moot – we are not having another referendum – but my sense is that Remainers will look at how so many people and organizations are ‘rowing back’ from the Project Fear threats, that they will feel that they were lied to and only voted Remain because of the fear generated and now they see the emptiness of those threats and would vote Leave, if they were given a second chance.

So supposing the PM does drag her feet or has a Brexit outcome that basically puts the country in the same position as it was before the referendum – not being in control of our destiny, having to accept free movement, and so on.  Then the ‘Leavers’ in Parliament might force an election and Theresa May would have to go to the country with a divided Conservative Party and a platform that doesn’t command acceptance with the party’s supporters, in the country.  We would no doubt see Conservative losses, perhaps enough to leave them lacking a parliamentary majority and then we could expect to see UKIP making significant gains in North of England seats, at the expense of a broken Labour Party .

The upshot? No party with an overall majority and Parliament as divided as the referendum result suggests.  This is not, I would suggest, in our national interest.  One of the things that the Remainers didn’t lie about is that international markets and companies, require stability.  The ‘markets’ know that certainty is elusive but they do look for a platform of one sort or another, around which they can develop their investment strategies.   A divided parliament, as could arise, would be very destabilizing. And, bear in mind, this instability could endure for an extended period of time.  Can you really see Conservative Theresa May sitting down to discuss a coalition with UKIP or with the anti-Corbyn wing of the Labour Party?  Or UKIP sitting down with the Corbynistas or the Anti-Corbyn wing.

Before Nicola and her stooges jump up and say what about the SNP.  Well at best, you represent less than 10% of the total number of MPs – so hardly meaningful.

I believe that the solution to head-off this catastrophic situation is for Theresa May to fire the starting gun on Brexit, in the very near future – no later than Janury 31, 2017 – she could even commit to the date, as early as the coming days.

Yes I know that we then have to reach a deal within two years but it’s two years, for heavens sake.  Not two weeks or two months but two years!  And, critically, the duration could be extended, if required (and if approved by all 28 nations) and at the outset we know that in a worst case situation we could utilise World Trade Organization, trade terms if need be. These WTO terms don’t include free movement of people, which takes a lot of the wind out of the sails of the Brexiteer’s opposition.  All those who voted Leave would have their fears of betrayal, assuaged and the internal Conservative opposition would be ‘de-fanged’.

This would do nothing to resolve Labour’s mess.  I am fast coming to the conclusion that only a split will give those who believe in democratic socialism (the majority of Labour voters) a home, going forward.  The effect of entryism in the Labour Party means that for so very many Labour Party supporters and voters, the only way forward is to breakaway and send Corbynistas to their fate in the political netherworld rather than them dragging the party into the political oblivion that their adherence to the ‘purity of socialism’ will certainly cause.

So over to Theresa!  Save the party, save the country, save the pound and save the economy.

About Tom O'Brien

Tom is an English Conservative Christian currently working as a Finance Manager in Erbil, Kurdistan, Iraq. When not in Iraq, his home is in Grantham, Lincolnshire, United Kingdom; also the hometown of Margaret Thatcher.

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